USING FAILURE TO PREDICT THE FUTURE
“everything successful eventually fails. winners destroy themselves first.”
The Lesson
Everything successful eventually fails. That's why no companies are hundreds of years old. But there are two types of failure: inevitable (technology overtakes you, like Polaroid) and strategic (you destroy yourself to become something new). Apple looks like a series of successes, but really they destroyed themselves repeatedly, computer company to music to phones to lifestyle octopus. They cannibalize their old selves before inevitable failure catches them. Companies and countries most able to eat themselves consistently have good futures. Those that can't reinvent (like Japan's plateau) eventually stagnate. The prediction filter: can this entity reinvent itself, or is it locked into what made it successful?
Real-World Example
A founder's first product is successful but clearly has a 3-year runway before the market shifts. Instead of riding it until failure, they deliberately cannibalize it. They launch a competing product that will eventually replace the original. Painful in the short term, but they control the timing of their own disruption rather than waiting for competitors or market changes to destroy them.
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